Rapid Intensification Guidance IO062023 231024 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 90.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 82.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.8 43.5 52.3 57.1 59.4 75.8 75.8 75.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 29.0 70.0 61.0 36.6 12.2 0.0 0.0 U U N N U U U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 75.1 64.4 64.4 64.4 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 13.0 -3.0 16.0 16.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 58.0 55.0 54.0 47.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 3.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 40.6% 12.1% 26.4% 25kt / 24h 21.1% 15.6% 18.4% 30kt / 24h 21.1% 10.7% 15.9% 35kt / 24h 21.1% 10.7% 15.9% 40kt / 24h 5.8% 9.5% 7.6% 45kt / 36h 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 IO062023 231024 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 90.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.8 43.5 52.3 57.1 59.4 75.8 75.8 75.8 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 58.0 55.0 54.0 47.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 N F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 3.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 4.5% 2.5%