Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062023 231024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     91.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.1  47.7  45.5  51.6  65.5  72.6  72.6  72.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  73.0  34.0  34.0  20.4   6.8   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  80.1  80.1  80.1  80.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  -5.0  30.0   6.0   8.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  52.0  47.0  43.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        1.4%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        4.0%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        2.1%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        2.1%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 IO062023 231024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     91.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.1  47.7  45.5  51.6  65.5  72.6  72.6  72.6 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  52.0  47.0  43.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        1.6%        9.1%        5.4%