Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062023 231024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     92.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.7  56.1  54.8  64.2  64.2  64.2  64.2  64.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  34.0  22.7  11.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  87.0  80.1  80.1  80.1  80.1  80.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  26.0  -3.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        0.7%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 IO062023 231024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60     92.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.7  56.1  54.8  64.2  64.2  64.2  64.2  64.2 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.2%       22.1%       15.7%