Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062023 231025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     92.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.7  55.3  69.8  78.6  81.5  81.5  81.5  81.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  27.2  20.4  13.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.3  69.8  64.4  69.8  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0   0.0  15.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 IO062023 231025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     92.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.7  55.3  69.8  78.6  81.5  81.5  81.5  81.5 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       33.1%       39.1%       36.1%