Rapid Intensification Guidance IO072023 231117 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 88.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 58.9 75.0 83.0 87.3 94.4 101.3 92.7 93.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 40.0 27.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 U N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 111.5 111.5 109.4 109.4 98.0 86.1 75.8 67.9 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 95.0 6.0 35.0 12.0 -23.0 -5.0 -18.0 21.0 F U N U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 51.0 47.0 38.0 27.0 26.0 21.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 4.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -4.0 -1.0 -3.0 U N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.64 IO072023 231117 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 88.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 58.9 75.0 83.0 87.3 94.4 101.3 92.7 93.4 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 51.0 47.0 38.0 27.0 26.0 21.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 4.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -4.0 -1.0 -3.0 F N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.7% 5.7% 52.7%