Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO082023 231203 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  18.8  16.7  19.4  18.5  16.6  23.5  33.7  F  N  F  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  25.0  29.0  30.0  20.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   178.0 143.0 127.0  97.0  16.0 -27.0  -2.0  26.0 VF VF  F  F  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   6.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        9.9%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h       47.1%       66.5%       56.8%
 30kt / 24h       16.4%       52.4%       34.4%
 35kt / 24h       12.2%       52.4%       32.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       49.3%       26.2%
 45kt / 36h       24.7%       69.2%       47.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       50.4%       25.2%
 55kt / 48h       33.8%       49.8%       41.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.0%       37.9%       23.9%
 65kt / 72h       18.7%       37.1%       27.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 IO082023 231203 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50     82.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  18.8  16.7  19.4  18.5  16.6  23.5  33.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   6.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%