Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO082023 231203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     82.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  19.4  21.2  19.9  19.2  21.4  29.0  34.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  25.0  27.0  31.0  34.0  24.0  30.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   141.0 123.0 104.0  60.0 -10.0 -28.0  25.0  27.0 VF  F  F  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   7.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        7.7%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       34.1%       57.0%       45.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.9%       40.8%       26.4%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%       40.8%       25.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       38.0%       19.8%
 45kt / 36h       18.5%       62.1%       40.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       41.6%       20.8%
 55kt / 48h       24.4%       39.3%       31.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%       27.3%       16.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.6%       25.8%       17.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 IO082023 231203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     82.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  19.4  21.2  19.9  19.2  21.4  29.0  34.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   7.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%