Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO082023 231203 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     82.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  16.4  19.4  16.7  19.0  25.1  34.2  44.3  N  F  N  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  29.0  32.0  35.0  34.0  14.0  29.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0  90.0  53.0  10.0 -12.0   0.0   2.0  20.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   4.0   6.0  12.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        9.0%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       31.8%       56.1%       43.9%
 30kt / 24h       14.0%       42.9%       28.4%
 35kt / 24h       13.8%       42.9%       28.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       40.2%       21.0%
 45kt / 36h       17.2%       56.3%       36.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.7%       18.4%
 55kt / 48h       17.7%       32.4%       25.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%       18.3%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%       13.5%        8.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 IO082023 231203 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     82.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  16.4  19.4  16.7  19.0  25.1  34.2  44.3  N  U  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   4.0   6.0  12.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%