Rapid Intensification Guidance IO082023 231204 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.50 81.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 90.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.0 20.1 20.5 19.6 24.0 28.7 35.5 41.9 N N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 22.0 15.0 14.0 29.0 24.0 21.0 23.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 133.0 99.0 79.0 53.0 42.0 32.0 20.0 7.0 VF F N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 58.0 59.0 59.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 52.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.1% 35.2% 39.7% 25kt / 24h 68.9% 80.2% 74.5% 30kt / 24h 55.7% 78.2% 67.0% 35kt / 24h 55.7% 78.2% 67.0% 40kt / 24h 25.7% 75.7% 50.7% 45kt / 36h 43.4% 73.4% 58.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 58.8% 29.4% 55kt / 48h 25.9% 44.0% 35.0% 70kt / 48h 7.0% 25.2% 16.1% 65kt / 72h 5.2% 13.0% 9.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.64 IO082023 231204 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.50 81.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.0 20.1 20.5 19.6 24.0 28.7 35.5 41.9 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 58.0 59.0 59.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 52.0 N F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%