Rapid Intensification Guidance IO082023 231204 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 81.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 18.6 16.7 14.8 29.3 38.9 55.2 74.8 F N F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 22.0 17.0 2.0 28.0 20.0 14.3 8.6 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 95.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 8.0 -11.0 -4.0 -19.0 -10.0 19.0 27.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 59.0 59.0 57.0 55.0 55.0 52.0 52.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 11.0 16.0 13.0 12.0 N N N N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.5% 20.6% 19.5% 25kt / 24h 35.4% 61.1% 48.3% 30kt / 24h 32.3% 56.1% 44.2% 35kt / 24h 32.3% 56.1% 44.2% 40kt / 24h 8.9% 54.4% 31.7% 45kt / 36h 20.3% 44.6% 32.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 27.1% 13.5% 55kt / 48h 6.0% 17.3% 11.6% 70kt / 48h 0.5% 6.0% 3.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.62 IO082023 231204 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 81.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 18.6 16.7 14.8 29.3 38.9 55.2 74.8 N N N U N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 59.0 59.0 57.0 55.0 55.0 52.0 52.0 N F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 11.0 16.0 13.0 12.0 N N N N F F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%