Rapid Intensification Guidance IO082023 231205 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.70 80.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 83.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 24.6 30.2 33.8 45.7 74.8 89.9 95.9 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 28.0 28.0 22.0 15.7 9.4 3.1 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 95.1 61.1 28.7 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 9.0 12.0 -3.0 31.0 27.0 -13.0 -46.0 U U U U N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 60.0 54.0 55.0 57.0 56.0 54.0 60.0 U N U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 6.0 12.0 14.0 20.0 10.0 -8.0 -10.0 U N U U VU U F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.5% 8.8% 7.7% 25kt / 24h 8.8% 24.4% 16.6% 30kt / 24h 8.6% 18.4% 13.5% 35kt / 24h 8.6% 18.4% 13.5% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 17.0% 9.1% 45kt / 36h 1.9% 6.3% 4.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.9% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 IO082023 231205 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.70 80.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 24.6 30.2 33.8 45.7 74.8 89.9 95.9 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 60.0 54.0 55.0 57.0 56.0 54.0 60.0 F N F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 6.0 12.0 14.0 20.0 10.0 -8.0 -10.0 F N F F VF F U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%