Rapid Intensification Guidance IO082023 231205 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 80.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.4 33.5 35.0 35.4 54.8 73.9 90.0 93.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 28.0 22.0 18.9 12.6 6.3 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 93.6 55.8 39.8 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 10.0 -13.0 14.0 16.0 15.0 -43.0 -23.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 54.0 55.0 53.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 60.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 13.0 11.0 18.0 17.0 8.0 -5.0 0.0 U U U VU U U F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 5.8% 3.3% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 2.7% 1.7% 35kt / 24h 0.7% 2.5% 1.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.5% 1.3% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 IO082023 231205 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 80.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.4 33.5 35.0 35.4 54.8 73.9 90.0 93.0 N F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 54.0 55.0 53.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 60.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 13.0 11.0 18.0 17.0 8.0 -5.0 0.0 F F F VF F F U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.8% 0.4% 0.6%