Rapid Intensification Guidance IO082023 231205 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 79.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.4 35.0 38.9 43.7 69.1 82.6 85.0 83.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 22.0 18.9 15.7 9.4 3.1 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1 94.8 59.3 49.7 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 3.0 12.0 31.0 19.0 -1.0 -54.0 -45.0 U U U N U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 56.0 51.0 52.0 57.0 56.0 55.0 49.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 10.0 15.0 15.0 7.0 -15.0 -9.0 -6.0 U U U U N VF F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 IO082023 231205 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 79.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.4 35.0 38.9 43.7 69.1 82.6 85.0 83.0 N F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 56.0 51.0 52.0 57.0 56.0 55.0 49.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 10.0 15.0 15.0 7.0 -15.0 -9.0 -6.0 F F F F N VU U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 4.9% 0.4% 2.6%