Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012023 220729 00UTC Storm Located at : -11.00 95.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 18.3 19.6 18.9 23.1 27.9 36.2 43.7 N F N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 24.0 17.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 106.5 96.6 91.2 89.4 87.7 89.4 86.0 89.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 87.0 59.0 55.0 41.0 27.0 -12.0 22.0 19.0 F N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 59.0 57.0 57.0 52.0 50.0 47.0 52.0 U U U U U U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -4.0 -5.0 -3.0 -2.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 F F F N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.2% 3.9% 4.1% 25kt / 24h 7.1% 15.6% 11.4% 30kt / 24h 3.4% 7.0% 5.2% 35kt / 24h 2.1% 6.4% 4.3% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 6.4% 3.6% 45kt / 36h 3.1% 20.5% 11.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 8.9% 4.5% 55kt / 48h 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 70kt / 48h 4.3% 3.6% 3.9% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.8% 0.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.26 SH012023 220729 00UTC Storm Located at : -11.00 95.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.