Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012023 220729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10     94.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.6  36.7  31.0  29.1  39.8  45.6  47.4  60.8 VU  U  U  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  87.7  87.7  86.0  86.0  82.7  86.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  39.0  43.0  27.0  12.0   8.0  17.0 -11.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  44.0  43.0  39.0  28.0  31.0  36.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -10.0  -8.0  -4.0 -11.0  -8.0  -4.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.70

 SH012023 220729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10     94.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.