Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012023 220730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     93.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  23.3  26.8  32.5  42.4  43.9  52.2  50.7  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.3  81.0  82.7  81.0  79.3  79.3  76.1  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   2.0   3.0 -18.0 -30.0 -34.0 -35.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  40.0  44.0  49.0  58.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0 -10.0  -7.0  -2.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.48

 SH012023 220730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     93.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.