Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012023 220730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.70     93.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  30.1  33.9  35.9  45.0  47.5  48.0  42.5  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  82.7  82.7  82.7  79.6  82.7  78.0  79.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  22.0 -14.0 -36.0 -33.0 -35.0 -47.0 -15.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  45.0  45.0  41.0  44.0  51.0  56.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0  -8.0  -8.0 -12.0  -9.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.30

 SH012023 220730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.70     93.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.