Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012023 220730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  35.2  39.1  42.3  49.4  49.6  40.7  40.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  87.7  86.1  84.6  86.1  83.0  80.0  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0 -14.0 -36.0 -38.0 -33.0 -36.0 -16.0  -4.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  47.0  44.0  41.0  40.0  43.0  43.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -7.0  -6.0 -11.0 -12.0  -5.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.24

 SH012023 220730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.