Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012023 220730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  41.8  44.3  48.3  53.7  51.8  40.1  38.7  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  87.7  84.6  83.0  84.6  78.6  78.6  86.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -31.0 -40.0 -39.0 -41.0 -44.0 -21.0   0.0   6.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  49.0  48.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0 -10.0 -12.0 -16.0 -12.0  -6.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.20

 SH012023 220730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.