Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012023 220731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.2  44.0  46.6  48.1  53.5  46.7  39.8  32.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  84.6  83.0  83.0  81.5  75.8  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -38.0 -23.0 -27.0 -59.0 -14.0  -2.0  18.0 -13.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  46.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  50.0  47.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -9.0  -7.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.14

 SH012023 220731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.