Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012023 220731 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.50 91.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 43.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.4 53.1 53.7 54.2 43.4 40.8 42.0 46.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 18.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.0 89.6 91.1 92.7 91.1 83.6 96.0 103.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -14.0 -39.0 -59.0 -58.0 -7.0 17.0 -3.0 25.0 U VU VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 48.0 53.0 55.0 54.0 57.0 51.0 49.0 VU U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -23.0 -17.0 -16.0 -6.0 -7.0 -4.0 -5.0 VF VF VF VF F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.12 SH012023 220731 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.50 91.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.