Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012023 220801 00UTC Storm Located at : -13.30 90.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.60 F TC SIZE [%] 45.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.9 52.9 53.6 47.6 44.1 55.2 75.3 77.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 26.0 60.0 79.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 88.0 89.6 91.1 92.7 88.0 114.4 135.0 135.0 N N N N N N F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -46.0 -63.0 -50.0 -30.0 20.0 17.0 37.0 24.0 VU VU VU VU U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 49.0 50.0 55.0 56.0 59.0 65.0 71.0 VU U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -17.0 -16.0 -11.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 VF VF VF F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.12 SH012023 220801 00UTC Storm Located at : -13.30 90.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.