Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012023 220801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10     89.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.9  57.9  52.1  46.7  44.8  49.6  56.9  56.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  14.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.1  94.3  94.3  94.3  86.5  89.6  97.7  97.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -29.0 -18.0  -6.0  16.0  38.0  54.0  54.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  47.0  52.0  48.0  50.0  49.0  52.0  52.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -16.0 -10.0  -6.0  -2.0  -3.0   2.0   2.0 VF VF  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.30

 SH012023 220801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10     89.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.