Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012023 220801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.50     88.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.6  53.8  47.5  39.4  38.0  51.9  51.9  51.9 VU VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  10.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.3 101.0  97.7  93.0  90.0  97.7  97.7  97.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -49.0 -23.0  -2.0  16.0   1.0  26.0  26.0  26.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  53.0  53.0  58.0  50.0  42.0  42.0  42.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -17.0  -9.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.30

 SH012023 220801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.50     88.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.