Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032023 221006 00UTC Storm Located at : -9.70 86.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.80 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.8 37.4 30.9 28.6 28.5 26.8 31.9 33.3 U U U N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 37.0 38.0 36.0 24.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.7 115.7 115.7 113.6 105.5 89.3 86.1 74.4 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 109.0 108.0 108.0 88.0 152.0 118.0 122.0 73.0 F F F F VF F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 71.0 72.0 72.0 69.0 70.0 70.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -7.0 -10.0 -5.0 -14.0 -1.0 -3.0 N N F F F VF N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 2.5% 5.9% 4.2% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 1.0% 7.7% 4.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 70kt / 48h 3.0% 1.8% 2.4% 65kt / 72h 4.1% 2.7% 3.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.78 SH032023 221006 00UTC Storm Located at : -9.70 86.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.8 37.4 30.9 28.6 28.5 26.8 31.9 33.3 N F N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 71.0 72.0 72.0 69.0 70.0 70.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -7.0 -10.0 -5.0 -14.0 -1.0 -3.0 N N U U U VU N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%