Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032023 221006 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.50 86.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.0 35.1 32.2 32.0 36.2 32.9 33.1 38.7 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 33.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 111.5 103.5 92.7 84.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 142.0 116.0 98.0 128.0 128.0 140.0 86.0 -11.0 VF F F F F VF F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 76.0 76.0 73.0 72.0 70.0 65.0 58.0 N F F N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -2.0 -6.0 -3.0 -7.0 -18.0 -17.0 N N N F N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 3.1% 2.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 2.8% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 1.8% 1.1% 1.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.80 SH032023 221006 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.50 86.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.0 35.1 32.2 32.0 36.2 32.9 33.1 38.7 F F N N F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 76.0 76.0 73.0 72.0 70.0 65.0 58.0 N U U N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -2.0 -6.0 -3.0 -7.0 -18.0 -17.0 N N N U N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%