Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032023 221006 18UTC Storm Located at : -9.30 85.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.8 25.3 27.1 25.8 30.9 35.2 48.2 52.3 U N N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 36.0 25.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 113.6 111.5 105.5 96.2 86.1 80.0 65.5 51.8 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 106.0 118.0 113.0 110.0 133.0 73.0 26.0 13.0 F F F F VF N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 69.0 71.0 70.0 66.0 59.0 53.0 45.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -9.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -12.0 -26.0 -32.0 F F F F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 4.0% 2.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.2% 2.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 70kt / 48h 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 SH032023 221006 18UTC Storm Located at : -9.30 85.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.