Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032023 221007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.80     85.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  32.6  34.8  34.1  43.3  41.8  43.7  41.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  36.0  31.0  24.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 109.4 103.5  98.0  91.0  81.5  70.4  66.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0 117.0 114.0 128.0 168.0  74.0  13.0  30.0  N  F  F  F VF  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  52.0  45.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -7.0  -6.0  -4.0 -13.0 -12.0 -14.0  N  N  F  F  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.42

 SH032023 221007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.80     85.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.