Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032023 221007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     85.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  24.1  30.3  30.1  35.2  42.8  44.3  38.4  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  17.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  98.0  94.4  92.7  87.7  74.4  71.7  77.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 146.0 166.0 149.0  43.0  16.0  33.0  36.0  F VF VF VF  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  68.0  63.0  58.0  52.0  43.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -4.0 -10.0  -5.0  -9.0   0.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        4.3%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.92

 SH032023 221007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.90     85.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.