Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032023 221008 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.10 85.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 45.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.1 26.8 32.2 32.9 49.9 46.9 51.8 51.8 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.0 87.7 86.1 83.0 64.3 55.7 53.7 53.7 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 155.0 124.0 61.0 51.0 18.0 37.0 13.0 13.0 VF F N N U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 63.0 59.0 58.0 52.0 43.0 38.0 38.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -5.0 -9.0 -12.0 -29.0 -21.0 -12.0 -12.0 N F F F VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.32 SH032023 221008 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.10 85.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.