Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032023 221008 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.70 85.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 49.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 25.2 32.0 40.1 49.8 47.8 45.1 46.1 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.3 84.6 80.0 73.0 60.9 59.8 59.8 63.2 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 56.0 66.0 46.0 34.0 26.0 0.0 -28.0 N N N N N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 48.0 39.0 30.0 24.0 N U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -8.0 -18.0 -24.0 -22.0 -10.0 -5.0 F N F VF VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.02 SH032023 221008 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.70 85.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.