Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032023 221008 18UTC Storm Located at : -14.30 85.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.5 36.5 44.5 44.0 45.9 39.4 28.1 28.5 U U VU VU VU U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 76.5 75.0 73.6 70.8 58.2 57.0 65.4 69.4 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 84.0 39.0 36.0 26.0 43.0 12.0 -2.0 -16.0 N N N U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 55.0 52.0 47.0 37.0 27.0 30.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -9.0 -7.0 -23.0 -28.0 -14.0 -5.0 -11.0 VF F F VF VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.78 SH032023 221008 18UTC Storm Located at : -14.30 85.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.