Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032023 221009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20     86.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  45.5  44.2  45.6  44.9  44.5  38.7  34.8  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.4  61.7  59.3  58.2  58.2  60.5  58.2  55.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  24.0  14.0  19.0  25.0 -17.0 -47.0 -30.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  51.0  49.0  42.0  33.0  23.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -13.0 -17.0 -17.0 -13.0  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  F VF VF VF VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.04

 SH032023 221009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.20     86.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.