Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032023 221009 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 86.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.50 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.4 43.3 45.3 44.2 41.8 39.1 36.1 35.0 U VU VU VU VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.8 67.9 63.2 60.9 62.0 65.5 64.3 59.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -15.0 -17.0 -2.0 -12.0 -35.0 -40.0 -29.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 50.0 47.0 44.0 32.0 25.0 24.0 19.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -13.0 -10.0 -10.0 -4.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 F VF F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.02 SH032023 221009 06UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 86.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.