Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032023 221009 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.60 87.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.60 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.5 41.5 43.7 42.9 48.0 51.7 52.2 59.6 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.8 71.7 66.7 62.0 59.8 53.7 52.8 51.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 -14.0 -3.0 -4.0 -31.0 -60.0 -24.0 -23.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 49.0 45.0 42.0 32.0 22.0 20.0 15.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -16.0 -15.0 -11.0 -9.0 -5.0 1.0 -1.0 VF VF VF F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.16 SH032023 221009 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.60 87.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.