Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032023 221009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     87.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.4  55.6  51.5  51.2  28.0  25.4  24.4  28.5 VU VU VU VU  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.9  48.7  47.8  48.7  66.7  70.8  69.4  66.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  37.0  24.0  40.0  15.0 -27.0 -23.0 -32.0  U  N  U  N  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  40.0  36.0  37.0  31.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -24.0 -16.0 -22.0  -7.0  -8.0 -10.0 -18.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.08

 SH032023 221009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     87.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.