Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032023 221010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50     87.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.7  46.0  40.7  32.0  27.2  25.5  22.4  24.8 VU VU VU  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.9  65.5  69.2  73.0  77.2  75.8  74.4  70.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  30.0  41.0  13.0 -25.0 -33.0 -40.0  -5.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  42.0  33.0  30.0  25.0  29.0  27.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -13.0 -16.0  -9.0  -2.0  -7.0  -9.0 -10.0 VF VF VF  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.00

 SH032023 221010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50     87.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.