Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042023 221104 00UTC Storm Located at : -9.50 93.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.6 24.1 18.4 15.8 15.7 15.1 16.4 17.6 N N F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 28.0 30.0 33.0 39.0 43.0 33.0 23.0 U U U U U N U U Potential [kt] 101.6 101.6 101.6 105.5 113.6 105.5 99.8 105.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 33.0 29.0 19.0 24.0 40.0 50.0 43.0 N N N U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 59.0 62.0 59.0 55.0 54.0 52.0 N N U N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 N F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 4.8% 2.8% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 1.6% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 1.3% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 1.3% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 1.4% 12.4% 6.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 55kt / 48h 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 70kt / 48h 8.5% 4.2% 6.4% 65kt / 72h 15.1% 9.7% 12.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 SH042023 221104 00UTC Storm Located at : -9.50 93.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.