Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042023 221104 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.80 92.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 22.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 24.0 22.7 19.3 19.0 20.2 22.4 23.2 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 30.0 31.0 33.0 42.0 37.0 29.0 26.0 U U U U N U U U Potential [kt] 98.0 99.8 103.5 107.4 115.7 101.6 103.5 105.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 43.0 27.0 42.0 33.0 43.0 59.0 68.0 N N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 61.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 55.0 51.0 49.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 -2.0 -2.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 7.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 5.1% 2.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 70kt / 48h 3.8% 1.3% 2.6% 65kt / 72h 9.2% 3.6% 6.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.08 SH042023 221104 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.80 92.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.