Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042023 221104 12UTC Storm Located at : -10.20 92.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.9 26.1 22.3 20.6 18.4 20.6 18.5 21.5 N N N N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 30.0 33.0 34.0 39.0 26.0 22.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.8 101.6 107.4 111.5 109.4 98.0 103.5 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 14.0 19.0 21.0 8.0 27.0 26.0 48.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 62.0 64.0 61.0 56.0 54.0 51.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -4.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 F F F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.6% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 70kt / 48h 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 65kt / 72h 4.8% 3.1% 4.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.20 SH042023 221104 12UTC Storm Located at : -10.20 92.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.