Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042023 221104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.50     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  24.2  22.2  19.8  20.4  23.9  21.0  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  33.0  35.0  38.0  29.0  19.0  20.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.8 109.4 113.6 113.6  96.2  99.8 101.6  96.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  34.0   8.0  16.0  14.0  38.0  49.0  41.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  70.0  68.0  61.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0   8.0   8.0   6.0   8.0  N  F  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.4%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        1.7%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        0.6%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        1.8%        2.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 SH042023 221104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.50     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.