Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042023 221105 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.80 90.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.80 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 23.5 19.2 15.3 15.9 15.1 18.8 19.6 N N N F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 34.0 37.0 41.0 31.0 32.0 24.0 16.0 U U U N U U U U Potential [kt] 107.4 113.6 113.6 111.5 98.0 98.0 101.6 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 19.0 8.0 0.0 32.0 37.0 54.0 50.0 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 63.0 61.0 63.0 61.0 57.0 55.0 54.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.6% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 4.7% 2.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 70kt / 48h 4.9% 1.2% 3.0% 65kt / 72h 8.1% 3.8% 6.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 SH042023 221105 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.80 90.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.