Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042023 221105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.60     88.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  23.7  24.9  25.0  25.2  26.6  29.8  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  31.0  26.0  21.0  17.0  20.0  23.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 121.5 104.4  96.1 106.2 109.8 109.8 113.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  17.0   7.0   1.0  49.0  74.0  45.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   1.0   5.0   9.0   8.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  F  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        1.0%        1.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.16

 SH042023 221105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.60     88.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.