Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042023 221105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.70     87.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  23.7  25.0  26.0  22.9  27.8  30.1  32.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  32.0  29.0  17.0  15.0  25.0  28.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 108.5  96.0  96.0 101.2 103.0 110.5 112.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   0.0  11.0  45.0  66.0  46.0  15.0  30.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   8.0   9.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        1.6%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        0.7%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        1.5%        1.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.10

 SH042023 221105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -11.70     87.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.