Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042023 221106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  25.9  21.4  19.0  21.5  24.1  25.5  28.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  19.0  20.0  17.0  15.0  20.0  18.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.7  96.0 101.2 103.0 101.2  97.7 101.2 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  45.0  59.0  49.0  53.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  57.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        7.6%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        2.6%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.6%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        3.0%        3.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.80

 SH042023 221106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.60     83.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.