Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042023 221106 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.80 82.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.2 24.1 20.7 19.8 23.0 29.8 27.5 29.8 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 16.0 13.0 16.0 15.0 12.0 17.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.3 97.7 99.4 101.2 96.0 94.3 96.0 92.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 67.0 50.0 49.0 41.0 55.0 61.0 47.0 49.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 58.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 53.0 50.0 U N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 N N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.0% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 1.9% 0.4% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 1.9% 0.9% 1.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.62 SH042023 221106 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.80 82.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.