Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221218 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.00 92.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 18.8 20.0 21.6 23.5 21.7 24.2 26.8 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.2 94.4 94.4 94.4 92.7 92.7 91.0 91.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 72.0 51.0 37.0 36.0 33.0 37.0 34.0 15.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 69.0 66.0 63.0 58.0 56.0 55.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -2.0 -3.0 N N N F N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.0% 2.9% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 5.6% 13.2% 9.4% 30kt / 24h 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 35kt / 24h 1.6% 5.2% 3.4% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 4.9% 2.5% 45kt / 36h 1.5% 25.4% 13.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 12.9% 6.4% 55kt / 48h 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 70kt / 48h 8.9% 7.5% 8.2% 65kt / 72h 2.9% 7.1% 5.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.74 SH052023 221218 06UTC Storm Located at : -12.00 92.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.