Rapid Intensification Guidance SH052023 221218 12UTC Storm Located at : -11.90 92.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 30.1 34.2 37.8 38.0 38.4 32.3 28.6 N N U U U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 31.0 31.0 28.0 23.0 16.0 11.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.2 89.4 89.4 89.4 89.4 87.7 86.0 86.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 78.0 43.0 44.0 80.0 28.0 29.0 -23.0 -12.0 N N N N U N VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 74.0 69.0 61.0 56.0 50.0 50.0 N F N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 9.0 7.0 7.0 N N N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 3.3% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 4.1% 2.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.74 SH052023 221218 12UTC Storm Located at : -11.90 92.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.