Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221219 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     93.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  29.5  32.1  27.3  33.1  24.1  21.8  20.5  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  28.0  23.0  19.0  16.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.2  81.2  81.2  79.4  77.7  76.0  77.7  81.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  59.0  24.0  16.0 -31.0 -40.0 -43.0  -6.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  64.0  61.0  54.0  48.0  44.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        2.5%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%        6.3%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        2.8%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        2.5%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        6.3%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 SH052023 221219 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.40     93.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.