Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052023 221220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  21.2  14.3  14.4  15.9  16.7  17.6  17.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  19.0  29.0  33.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          9.3   7.7   7.7   9.3  14.4  21.6  27.4  33.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -53.0 -45.0 -45.0 -39.0   3.0 -10.0  -5.0 -13.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  46.0  51.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.36

 SH052023 221220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.20     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.